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A new report highlights the need for urgent action in the EU to tap HFC emissions: By 2030, HFC emissions from the cooling sector are projected to increase by more than 50% compared to 2005 levels.

Titled ‘Potentials and costs for mitigation of non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union until 2030’, the report prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the European Commission presents estimates of baseline emissions and mitigation cost curves for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the 27 countries of the European Union (EU-27).

Predicted HFC emissions by sector

In terms of applications the authors predict:

• Industrial refrigeration: 119% increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Commercial refrigeration: 63% increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Domestic refrigeration: nearly zero increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels (domestic refrigeration is increasingly dominated by hydrocarbon natural refrigerants)
• Transport refrigeration: 25% decrease in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Stationary air-conditioning: 117% increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Mobile air-conditioning: 91% decrease in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• HCFC22 production: 74% decrease in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels

Overall, HFC emissions from these sectors are projected to increase by 21.3 Mt CO₂eq in 2030, an increase of more than 50% from 2005 levels.

Emissions of all F-gases (including HFCs, PFCs and SF6) from all sectors (e.g. foams, semiconductor industry, high and mid voltage switches etc) are expected to increase by 10% until 2020 and by 25% until 2030. In contrast, overall baseline emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases are estimated to decline by 13% between 2005 and 2020. The authors of the study attribute the expected growth in F-gas emissions to the combined effect of increased demand for refrigeration and air conditioning and the replacement of CFCs with HFCs following the Montreal Protocol.

BeyondHFCs urges EU policy makers s to take into account the findings of the report, which show that additional measure to limit HFC emissions are needed in the EU, as the mere implementation of existing measures will not suffice. An HFC phase-out schedule for example would provide a factual incentive for the industry to make the switch to truly sustainable cooling solutions that incorporate natural refrigerants such as ammonia, carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons.


To view the IIASA study click here.